Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 99239.517419 104579.302206 109912.971353 115636.749709 121601.657221 127631.001908 134182.485921
2025-08-17 90028.530365 98173.339684 106531.412455 115738.668684 125585.734506 135790.422897 147154.133254
2025-08-24 84317.211486 94460.316164 105091.795471 117043.892500 130083.649549 143855.661413 159477.860423
2025-08-31 78981.878199 90537.015959 102867.557055 116968.238543 132609.205656 149389.142634 168713.745396
2025-09-07 75672.035048 88478.595376 102356.795486 118460.122239 136575.259907 156267.438939 179235.111730
2025-09-14 72580.136092 86402.929124 101592.619596 119449.862905 139791.714461 162164.815719 188552.992004
2025-09-21 69364.204259 83974.092925 100238.546791 119592.514530 141895.713560 166690.579942 196235.142378
2025-09-28 66521.563993 81809.026276 99035.153585 119765.311975 143910.685444 171019.323077 203623.773699
2025-10-05 64941.744239 81012.642010 99320.873351 121577.265003 147749.136854 177392.173090 213341.474135
2025-10-12 63338.728095 80094.968548 99383.863446 123058.223703 151149.536855 183230.221942 222438.728854
2025-10-19 61495.926996 78800.503459 98923.010889 123850.282368 153685.851601 188029.069662 230314.987696
2025-10-26 59454.781412 77179.421390 97995.093719 124014.548864 155420.294966 191848.199947 237022.096606
2025-11-02 57638.868792 75787.408106 97309.591236 124451.375618 157482.296382 196081.639815 244281.251481
2025-11-09 55771.324819 74265.976333 96410.138097 124579.888007 159138.461319 199816.966233 250955.865744
2025-11-16 54658.307544 73639.858948 96568.908507 125970.585745 162306.623693 205361.108059 259819.090199
2025-11-23 52894.919577 72129.768982 95577.497524 125891.324002 163637.408280 208665.208716 265974.517486
2025-11-30 52032.420039 71731.570829 95943.292074 127475.658584 167004.126705 214442.628153 275155.226885
2025-12-07 50972.749467 71039.400800 95905.262687 128526.506712 169693.043228 219391.350995 283343.324321
2025-12-14 49559.189712 69841.075178 95183.908191 128677.962848 171231.708581 222913.303361 289782.992727
2025-12-21 48231.927171 68713.505306 94514.849116 128861.409929 172784.339596 226438.658270 296228.966659
2025-12-28 47733.742099 68660.858806 95213.436552 130784.831650 176535.704563 232706.980860 306109.449434
2026-01-04 47111.584359 68419.146149 95648.418399 132356.664954 179838.543544 238427.700342 315339.101493
2026-01-11 46211.781144 67775.420201 95534.193565 133197.241584 182196.276911 242965.412756 323107.060208